Please note, this was written on the morning after the result.
Well, well, well, who would’ve thought it. Just goes to show, nothing is sure in this life except death and taxes. For me, the debate was never about immigration, economics, benefits or such like, simply the sovereignty of this great country. The EU was moving inexorably towards becoming a Federal state, something we hopefully will have stopped and given hope to our like-minded European Cousins.
So what happens next? Here're a few thoughts:
Well, well, well, who would’ve thought it. Just goes to show, nothing is sure in this life except death and taxes. For me, the debate was never about immigration, economics, benefits or such like, simply the sovereignty of this great country. The EU was moving inexorably towards becoming a Federal state, something we hopefully will have stopped and given hope to our like-minded European Cousins.
So what happens next? Here're a few thoughts:
The Markets.
Traders are doing what traders have always done, prey on the fears of the less well informed, gamble and try to make this quarter's bonus target. The markets will go up and down for a time, before stabilising once everyone remembers a few things and starts to reflect. We remain the fifth largest economy in the world. If we were so unimportant and insignificant that we desperately had to hang onto the coat-tails of Europe, why have the world’s markets taken Brexit so badly? It's because we are a global trader and Britain matters. The fundamentals are all still in place, just as they were yesterday, nothing's changed. It will be two years and three months before we actually exit and a lot can happen in that time. The markets, as I wrote above, are simply doing what they do best, and that is speculate. I see that Travis Perkins, a very successful builder’s merchants that sell in the UK has seen its shares fall 40%. Why, when it isn’t affected by what happens in Europe and sells to the builders in the UK? You can’t go down a street without seeing loft extensions going up, yet canny traders are making a killing on the stock market shorting the firms shares. But, the company is still there, still making the same profits it did before the referendum and is therefore exactly the same as it was. All that’s changed is the share price, not the business.
Traders are doing what traders have always done, prey on the fears of the less well informed, gamble and try to make this quarter's bonus target. The markets will go up and down for a time, before stabilising once everyone remembers a few things and starts to reflect. We remain the fifth largest economy in the world. If we were so unimportant and insignificant that we desperately had to hang onto the coat-tails of Europe, why have the world’s markets taken Brexit so badly? It's because we are a global trader and Britain matters. The fundamentals are all still in place, just as they were yesterday, nothing's changed. It will be two years and three months before we actually exit and a lot can happen in that time. The markets, as I wrote above, are simply doing what they do best, and that is speculate. I see that Travis Perkins, a very successful builder’s merchants that sell in the UK has seen its shares fall 40%. Why, when it isn’t affected by what happens in Europe and sells to the builders in the UK? You can’t go down a street without seeing loft extensions going up, yet canny traders are making a killing on the stock market shorting the firms shares. But, the company is still there, still making the same profits it did before the referendum and is therefore exactly the same as it was. All that’s changed is the share price, not the business.
Immigration.
So much rubbish was written and spoken on this subject during the debate that it was shameful to witness. No, immigration won't change and “foreigners” won't be shown the door, any more than Brits living in Spain etc will all be chucked out. It’s in no-one's interest to do so. What will happen is that once we leave in two and a bit years’ time, and not before then, anyone from the EU will not be able to claim any benefits while living or working here…and here’s the difference…unless WE want them to. The professional beggars blighting areas of London can all be deported and not allowed back in…should WE not want to let them back in. The foreign professionals working in our cities and health service, paying their taxes and obeying our laws, contributing greatly to the prosperity of this nation, will always be welcomed here, just as ours will be in the EU as it’s in everyone’s best interests for it to remain so. The working class Britons being undercut by cheap labour from the many underperforming parts of the EU will find their artificially depressed wages start to rise as fewer unskilled economic migrants are allowed to work. Frau Merkel made a huge mistake in unilaterally throwing open Europe’s borders to economic migrants from around the world and is still desperately looking for other nations to take the strain. What Germany wants in Europe, it normally gets, so we could have expected huge pressure on Cameron to take them here too.
So much rubbish was written and spoken on this subject during the debate that it was shameful to witness. No, immigration won't change and “foreigners” won't be shown the door, any more than Brits living in Spain etc will all be chucked out. It’s in no-one's interest to do so. What will happen is that once we leave in two and a bit years’ time, and not before then, anyone from the EU will not be able to claim any benefits while living or working here…and here’s the difference…unless WE want them to. The professional beggars blighting areas of London can all be deported and not allowed back in…should WE not want to let them back in. The foreign professionals working in our cities and health service, paying their taxes and obeying our laws, contributing greatly to the prosperity of this nation, will always be welcomed here, just as ours will be in the EU as it’s in everyone’s best interests for it to remain so. The working class Britons being undercut by cheap labour from the many underperforming parts of the EU will find their artificially depressed wages start to rise as fewer unskilled economic migrants are allowed to work. Frau Merkel made a huge mistake in unilaterally throwing open Europe’s borders to economic migrants from around the world and is still desperately looking for other nations to take the strain. What Germany wants in Europe, it normally gets, so we could have expected huge pressure on Cameron to take them here too.
Travel in the EU.
I’m old enough to remember what happened before we joined the EU. We had free movement and didn’t need visas. We simply turned up, presented at Customs our old, black, over-sized British passport and went through. Exactly the same happens now, except it’s smaller and reddish in colour. Nothing will change once we leave. EU nations still will want our tourists, just as we will still want theirs. Why? Because it generates money and is in everyone’s interest for it to continue.
I’m old enough to remember what happened before we joined the EU. We had free movement and didn’t need visas. We simply turned up, presented at Customs our old, black, over-sized British passport and went through. Exactly the same happens now, except it’s smaller and reddish in colour. Nothing will change once we leave. EU nations still will want our tourists, just as we will still want theirs. Why? Because it generates money and is in everyone’s interest for it to continue.
They say, the defence of the realm is threatened and infer terrorism
will rise
Despite shameful defence cut’s we remain the fifth most powerful military in the world and one of only three global “blue-water” navies, a nuclear power and a founder member of both the “Five-Eyes” network (with US, Canada, New Zealand and Australia) and NATO. None of these is predicated on staying in the EU, in fact, I would argue that the other EU nations have been neglecting their NATO commitments on defence spending even more than we have and were relying on us and the US far too much. We don’t need the EU to keep us safe, but they desperately need us and our peerless intelligence network. It’s no coincidence that the Five Eyes refuse to allow any EU nation to join. Why? Because they can’t be trusted not to disclose the intelligence that is gathered by the five nations to hostile powers. That we are somehow going to be less safe is a nonsense.
Despite shameful defence cut’s we remain the fifth most powerful military in the world and one of only three global “blue-water” navies, a nuclear power and a founder member of both the “Five-Eyes” network (with US, Canada, New Zealand and Australia) and NATO. None of these is predicated on staying in the EU, in fact, I would argue that the other EU nations have been neglecting their NATO commitments on defence spending even more than we have and were relying on us and the US far too much. We don’t need the EU to keep us safe, but they desperately need us and our peerless intelligence network. It’s no coincidence that the Five Eyes refuse to allow any EU nation to join. Why? Because they can’t be trusted not to disclose the intelligence that is gathered by the five nations to hostile powers. That we are somehow going to be less safe is a nonsense.
Refugee camps moving from Calais to Kent.
Really? The agreement with France allowing us to have passport controls on the French side is independent of the EU. Should France decide to rescind it and allows people to get onto the ferries or Eurostar without checking them, we simply fine the companies transporting the people very large sums per person (as is the case now) and put them on the next train/ferry back. Another option is to close the Tunnel. Given it is mainly owned by the French they would hate that to happen or pay the fines. Scaremongering at its worst. In addition, such a move would increase the number of migrants heading for Calais, which is the very reason France agreed to the border controls in the first place. Why aren’t the doom-mongerers mentioning that, I wonder?
Really? The agreement with France allowing us to have passport controls on the French side is independent of the EU. Should France decide to rescind it and allows people to get onto the ferries or Eurostar without checking them, we simply fine the companies transporting the people very large sums per person (as is the case now) and put them on the next train/ferry back. Another option is to close the Tunnel. Given it is mainly owned by the French they would hate that to happen or pay the fines. Scaremongering at its worst. In addition, such a move would increase the number of migrants heading for Calais, which is the very reason France agreed to the border controls in the first place. Why aren’t the doom-mongerers mentioning that, I wonder?
Our standing in the world would be lessened.
Again, fifth largest economy and armed forces, a legal system which oils much of the world’s trade, our standing in the Commonwealth, our soft power which is as good, if not better than the Americans, a permanent seat of the UN along with France, China, Russian Federation and the US,etc etc. The list does go on a lot. Lessened, really? The nation that gave the world such things as Parliamentary Democracy, Shakespeare, English Language, second highest number of Nobel Prize winners etc is suddenly going to become unimportant if it left the EU?
Again, fifth largest economy and armed forces, a legal system which oils much of the world’s trade, our standing in the Commonwealth, our soft power which is as good, if not better than the Americans, a permanent seat of the UN along with France, China, Russian Federation and the US,etc etc. The list does go on a lot. Lessened, really? The nation that gave the world such things as Parliamentary Democracy, Shakespeare, English Language, second highest number of Nobel Prize winners etc is suddenly going to become unimportant if it left the EU?
Cannot influence the EU anymore
We couldn’t before. We had 73 seats in the 751 strong EU Parliament and thanks to a previous Government agreeing to qualified majority voting, found ourselves unable to veto an awful lot of things. Look how Cameron went to Brussels with reasonable demands and came back with…what exactly? Does anyone understand what he supposedly won still had to be voted on and could have been overturned by the European Court of Justice, or that his trumpeted deal on paying benefits could only be invoked after an EU vote (remember 71 v 753!). Asking the poor, Eastern Bloc nations to vote for that whose people were the beneficiaries, would have been the same as asking Turkeys to vote for Christmas!
We couldn’t before. We had 73 seats in the 751 strong EU Parliament and thanks to a previous Government agreeing to qualified majority voting, found ourselves unable to veto an awful lot of things. Look how Cameron went to Brussels with reasonable demands and came back with…what exactly? Does anyone understand what he supposedly won still had to be voted on and could have been overturned by the European Court of Justice, or that his trumpeted deal on paying benefits could only be invoked after an EU vote (remember 71 v 753!). Asking the poor, Eastern Bloc nations to vote for that whose people were the beneficiaries, would have been the same as asking Turkeys to vote for Christmas!
Trade with EU and rest of the world
Most of the EU is up the Swanee economically. Look across to France, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy etc and they are all in a mess. Germany is doing fine, thank you very much, because the Eurozone favours it at the expense of all the rest, especially Southern Europe. We are a huge market for their exports, especially Germany, just look where all the cars and white goods go, you see them everywhere here. Does anyone really think they are going to put tariffs on British goods and risk us doing the same to theirs? Beggar my neighbour is for children. No, they will huff, and puff, and make all sorts of noises in the weeks and months from now, mainly to try and stop their own voters from demanding a referendum too, but behind the scenes, the negotiations will all be going on to facilitate free trade. There will be a few headline tariffs so both sides can save face and the politicians make noises to their voters back home, but the bulk will continue as before. Our trade with the rest of the world will continue too. Are we so rubbish and have sunk so low that we can no longer negotiate trade deals for ourselves? We get back our seat on the WTO that we had to give to the EU. I know Obama said we would go to the back of the queue in trading with them. Yeah, right. Watch this space. American businesses will be clamouring to do deals with us. Money talks in the US like nothing else.
Most of the EU is up the Swanee economically. Look across to France, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy etc and they are all in a mess. Germany is doing fine, thank you very much, because the Eurozone favours it at the expense of all the rest, especially Southern Europe. We are a huge market for their exports, especially Germany, just look where all the cars and white goods go, you see them everywhere here. Does anyone really think they are going to put tariffs on British goods and risk us doing the same to theirs? Beggar my neighbour is for children. No, they will huff, and puff, and make all sorts of noises in the weeks and months from now, mainly to try and stop their own voters from demanding a referendum too, but behind the scenes, the negotiations will all be going on to facilitate free trade. There will be a few headline tariffs so both sides can save face and the politicians make noises to their voters back home, but the bulk will continue as before. Our trade with the rest of the world will continue too. Are we so rubbish and have sunk so low that we can no longer negotiate trade deals for ourselves? We get back our seat on the WTO that we had to give to the EU. I know Obama said we would go to the back of the queue in trading with them. Yeah, right. Watch this space. American businesses will be clamouring to do deals with us. Money talks in the US like nothing else.
Scotland leaving/another referendum
Might happen, but as I’ve written elsewhere, the Scots are known to be canny, not stupid. When oil was over $100 a barrel there might have been a case for financial autonomy, but now? Spain has issues with its own independence movement, as does France so they are unlikely to welcome Scotland in without their having to accept the Euro and go in as a new member. I know the SNP say differently, but will the EU, bereft of the UK’s £8 or £10 billion net payment want to take on a country that needs financial help from day one without insisting it takes on the Euro as part of the deal? As I wrote. Scots aren’t stupid. If they did go, then one good thing to come out of it would be the Socialists never ever getting back into Government. It’s an ill wind. But, I would respect their right to leave and wouldn’t make a song and dance about it.
Might happen, but as I’ve written elsewhere, the Scots are known to be canny, not stupid. When oil was over $100 a barrel there might have been a case for financial autonomy, but now? Spain has issues with its own independence movement, as does France so they are unlikely to welcome Scotland in without their having to accept the Euro and go in as a new member. I know the SNP say differently, but will the EU, bereft of the UK’s £8 or £10 billion net payment want to take on a country that needs financial help from day one without insisting it takes on the Euro as part of the deal? As I wrote. Scots aren’t stupid. If they did go, then one good thing to come out of it would be the Socialists never ever getting back into Government. It’s an ill wind. But, I would respect their right to leave and wouldn’t make a song and dance about it.
Anyhow, I’ve had my
say. What’s interesting now is to watch and read people’s reaction to the
result. I can honestly say that if we had voted to remain, I would have
shrugged my shoulders and got on with it, respecting the will of the people, so
it’s fascinating to see how others react.
Now is not a time for triumphalism, recriminations or name–calling. We need to accept the democratic will of the people and move forward as one nation, putting our personal views aside and work together to show the rest of the EU and the wider world, that the blood that flows through our veins is the same as that which flowed through our ancestors in Agincourt, Cressy, Waterloo, Trafalgar, WW1 and WW2. A Britain that looks outwards and embraces the wider world, instead of looking inwards to an increasingly irrelevant and economically shrinking EU, is something I am proud of and wholeheartedly believe in.
Now is not a time for triumphalism, recriminations or name–calling. We need to accept the democratic will of the people and move forward as one nation, putting our personal views aside and work together to show the rest of the EU and the wider world, that the blood that flows through our veins is the same as that which flowed through our ancestors in Agincourt, Cressy, Waterloo, Trafalgar, WW1 and WW2. A Britain that looks outwards and embraces the wider world, instead of looking inwards to an increasingly irrelevant and economically shrinking EU, is something I am proud of and wholeheartedly believe in.
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